Forecasting
When will we be done? Monte Carlo instead of guessing
Use your team’s historical throughput to forecast a date with a stated probability. No story points, no estimating every single item.
Inputs
How does it work?
For each scenario we sample (with replacement) throughput from your history, period after period, until the work runs out. We repeat that 10,000 times. The result is a probability distribution, not a single “promised” date.
Instead of “we’ll be done on 15 March” you say: “we’re 85% confident we’ll be done by 22 March”. More honest. And no story points.